Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 10.975175 12.292042 13.772347 15.573566 17.725062 20.237024 23.428403
2025-03-23 9.195452 10.855093 12.869831 15.542196 19.067389 23.670513 30.336640
2025-03-30 7.921180 9.654980 11.862588 14.958511 19.325623 25.500573 35.376193
2025-04-06 6.964163 8.684909 10.952913 14.268124 19.191640 26.609812 39.503697
2025-04-13 6.270970 7.966375 10.264913 13.742903 19.140691 27.742439 43.886161
2025-04-20 6.265949 8.165330 10.843603 15.100818 22.148737 34.380726 60.348841
2025-04-27 6.009773 7.976687 10.830839 15.537643 23.726952 38.945748 74.829722
2025-05-04 5.558140 7.462277 10.275596 15.025478 23.562439 40.174391 82.354176
2025-05-11 5.365959 7.312667 10.257743 15.388348 25.025521 45.024786 101.635411
2025-05-18 5.076326 6.991743 9.938939 15.191347 25.384953 47.602897 116.229202
2025-05-25 4.823073 6.707960 9.653862 15.016737 25.752830 50.298917 133.177541
2025-06-01 4.619312 6.486937 9.451700 14.965859 26.361718 53.759285 155.826600
2025-06-08 4.344840 6.147659 9.044725 14.525259 26.145144 55.261554 173.350700
2025-06-15 4.164889 5.949571 8.862436 14.494533 26.841460 59.541980 209.077278
2025-06-22 3.919158 5.629713 8.447067 13.965093 26.305969 60.117027 227.155875
2025-06-29 3.678175 5.305210 8.003049 13.337811 25.448897 59.497974 238.300719
2025-07-06 3.479252 5.040624 7.648559 12.859822 24.887607 59.692869 255.847702
2025-07-13 3.550453 5.228623 8.108563 14.094250 28.813037 76.589618 443.732670
2025-07-20 3.494821 5.197335 8.167153 14.490418 30.672529 87.347319 639.072067
2025-07-27 3.329906 4.969503 7.846438 14.025878 30.074220 87.921156 708.796123
2025-08-03 3.276485 4.932504 7.881055 14.355068 31.808609 99.625725 1063.025796
2025-08-10 3.164531 4.787206 7.700217 14.176390 32.015328 104.488533 1346.285383
2025-08-17 3.061920 4.653895 7.534717 14.017944 32.260630 109.796486 1748.485487